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9月份石油研究报告翻译(中译英)

尼日利亚:逆势飙涨

非洲最大的经济体尼日利亚表现异常抢眼。在2015年2月即将举行大选的背景之下,尽管存在安全隐忧、石油管道盗窃横行和资本流动无常等棘手的难题,旺盛的国内需求依然带动了经济增长。通货膨胀因食品价格压力而再次走高,预计货币政策仍将收紧,一直持续到2015年。电力行业的私有化等重大结构化改革正在开展当中,预计将会缓解经济增长压力。

印度:乘风破浪

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪当选之后提出的经济振兴计划以及源源不断的大规模资本流入使得印度发展前景愈发光明。政府启动了大刀阔斧的改革,采取宏观稳定举措,旨在逐步为更加强劲的经济表现打下坚实的基础。尽管近期前景正在改善,但仍有很多国内外难题需要解决。

美国页岩行业:中期前景亮丽,未来仍笼罩乌云

页岩钻探技术促使美国油气产量回升,能源进口因此而大幅下滑,国内石油和天然气价格明显下降,电力和能源密集型制造行业迎来增长。美国也将因此而在2020年之前不断降低对外国石油的依赖性,从2017年开始成为天然气的净出口国。尽管中期而言石油产量的持续增长看似有利,但却可能在这十年的后半段遭遇困境,增长减速,甚至可能逆转近年来的稳定上升之势。全面放开能源出口可能会显著缓解这些压力。

委内瑞拉—市场恐慌:总统马杜罗

昨天承诺偿还国家外债,从而缓解了上周主权债券利差的大幅上扬。尽管如此,今年7月以来2027年到期的全球债券收益率已经上升了270个基点,达到13.5%,而5年期信用违约掉期(CDS)利差扩大了557个基点,达到1494个基点(参见图标5.1)。内阁重组诱发抛售潮,前经济首长Rafael Ramírz被调任,表明亟需的宏观政策调整将进一步延期。委内瑞拉杰出的经济学家Ricardo Hausmann提出的国家主权债券违约而非扩大私营部门未偿债务的建议加重了市场的紧张情绪。在油价疲软和经济扭曲日益严重的情况下,委内瑞拉的经济面临着停滞性通胀的困境。随着民众认可度的下降以及马杜罗统治联盟的内讧,政府可以回旋的余地不断缩小。2014年剩下的时间里,日益逼近的本金和利息偿付接近70亿美元。我们认为政府的经济问题基本上是由内因而非外因造成的。该国仍有能力偿还债务,并将努力避免近期违约。但是,如果进入全球市场的代价变得愈发高昂,而且经济持续下行轨迹,那么违约仍然是一大风险。

Nigeria: Strong Growth Despite Headwinds

Nigeria’s economy, the largest in Africa, is performing remarkably well. Strong domestic demand is driving growth notwithstanding challenges which include security concerns, significant theft from oil pipelines, and volatility in capital flows against the backdrop of upcoming elections in February 2015. Inflation is rising again due to pressures on food prices and monetary policy is expected to remain tight into 2015. Important structural reforms, such as the privatization of the power sector, are underway and these are expected to ease constraints on growth.

ndia: Wind in the Sails

The economic program of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the post-stabilization measures aimed at gradually building the foundation for a stronger economic performance. While near-term prospects are improving, there are a number of external and domestic challenges to navigate.

election boost to sentiment, and continuing large capital inflows are underpinning an increasingly buoyant outlook. The government has embarked on wide-ranging reforms along with macro-stabilization measures aimed at gradually building the foundation for a stronger economic performance. While near-term prospects are improving, there are a number of external and domestic challenges to navigate.

U.S. Shale: Medium-Term Outlook Bright, Clouds Beyond

The resurgence of U.S. oil and gas production fueled by shale drilling technologies has led to dramatic reductions in energy imports, sharply reduced domestic oil and gas prices, and provided an uplift to the power and energy-intensive manufacturing sectors. As a result, the U.S. will continue to decrease dependence on foreign oil until 2020 and will become a net exporter of natural gas from 2017 onwards. However, continued growth in oil production, which looks favorable in the medium-term, could face headwinds later in the decade, slowing down and possibly reversing the steady rise of recent years

A full liberalization of energy exports could substantially ease the constraints.

Venezuela—market jitters:

President Nicolás Maduro pledged yesterday to pay the country's external obligations, helping to ease the sharp spike in sovereign bond spreads seen over the past week. Nevertheless, the 2027 global bond yield has increased 270 bps to 13.5% since late July and 5-year CDS spreads widened 557 bps to 1494 bps (Chart 5.1). The sell-off was triggered by a cabinet reshuffling, which sidelined former economic chief, Rafael Ramírez, signaling further delays in needed macro policy adjustments. A suggestion by a prominent Venezuelan economist, Ricardo Hausmann, to default on the country's sovereign bonds, rather than continuing to accumulate debt arrears with the private sector, added to market nervousness. The economy is facing stagflation amid softening oil prices and rising distortions. With declining popular approval and infighting within Maduro's ruling coalition, the government's scope to maneuver is increasingly narrow. Looming principal and interest repayments are near $7 billion in the remainder of 2014. We believe the government's economic problems largely stem from internal rather than external sources. It has the capacity to service its debt and will strive to avoid a default in the near term. However, default remains a risk if access to global markets becomes increasingly more expensive and the economy continues its downward spiral.

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